Where Will The Next Data Centers Be?
The AI data center race has driven up electricity demand across America. Tech companies are forecast to build hundreds of data centers in almost every state. Data center load growth has more than tripled over the past decade, and is projected to triple again in the next five years.
In a study published last month, researchers from the IM3 project of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory modeled factors like water access, land use, population growth, and existing electricity infrastructure to map where new data centers are most likely to be built over the next 10 years. While existing electricity demand is a factor in data center suitability, researchers forecast that many new data centers will be added to counties where power grid vulnerability is already high, pushing power demand to dangerous highs. A closer look at the data reveals where researchers predict the most new data centers will be built in the next 10 years.
Data Center Heavy
To determine the most likely locations for new data centers in the next 10 years, Electricity Wars reviewed data from the IM3 project of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, with support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. Counties were ranked based on the number of new data centers projected to be built from 2025 to 2035.Â
Supplemental data on forecast population change is from the University of Illinois Chicago and are based on the SSP2 shared social pathway scenario, a “middle-of-the-road” scenario in which demographic and economic trends largely continue in line with historical trends. Data on Power Stress Vulnerability Index score are from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Most of these will be located in the Western states, in Virginia, and in areas that receive a significant amount of electricity but have low populations. It is more likely that these will accommodate solar and wind farms. There are also likely to be fewer objections to nuclear installations.
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